ACM：市场回应全球经济复苏迹象
来源：亚洲外汇网
作者：彼得·罗森斯得克

今日汇评

有关美国、欧盟以及中国即将释放积极经济数据的预期令风险偏好情绪活跃，避险货币开始走跌，亚洲市场好转，大宗商品货币也收复了昨日的部分失地。日元兑大多数货币均走软，美元兑日元走高至84.26高点，欧元兑日元走高至122.06高点，欧元兑美元维持1.4513强劲水平位，英镑兑美元上涨至1.6274，澳元兑美元上扬至1.0493高点，纽元兑美元上涨至0.7886，这些上涨确实统统都得益于全球经济复苏的迹象。伴随着美国零售销售数据的释放，市场预期欧盟工业生产数据将出现好转，同时预期中国周五的经济数据将显示国内生产总值扩张幅度将超过9%，通胀增幅创近三年以来的最高值。与此同时，今日地震再次袭击日本，日本政府六个月来首次下调了经济评估值。

正如市场预期，加拿大央行保持政策利率不变，并将他们2011年和2012年的国内生产总值预期分别调整至2.9％（前值为2.4％）和2.6％（前值为2.8％）。他们预期经济将在2012年年中恢复活力。官方宣称，尽管最近的经济增长好于预期，但在很大程度上依然与他们一月的预期一致，而且他们还重申必须认真考虑刺激政策的任何进一步削减。此外，加拿大央行再次表示加元走强是经济复苏面临的一大挑战，由于大宗商品价格的不断上涨，他们预期将会出现更广泛的全球通胀压力。

英国三月消费者物价指数略低于市场的一致预期值，年比上涨4.0%，令英镑受挫。由于增长前景的不明朗以及英国央行内部的巨大分歧，对英镑的接触应该采取较为谨慎的策略。四月27日如公布疲软的国内生产总值数据，价值已经公布的疲软消费者物价指数和疲软的消费者需求，或将令英国央行继续维持当前的利率水平。英国三月零售销售数据令人失望，年比下降3.5%，为1995年以来的最坏值。这是第一个真实的信号表明，去年采取的紧缩政策对消费者需求产生的影响已经大幅减弱，将成为判断未来发展态势的一个重要指标！

即将释放的新闻包括英国申请失业救济人数和失业数据、欧元区工业生产数据、美国先进零售销售数据、商业库存数据、石油库存数据以及美联储的褐皮书和加拿大的货币政策报告。我们也将关注加拿大央行的卡尼、澳洲联储的史蒂文斯、欧洲央行的梅尔施斯塔克、汤普古格罗、韦伯、美联储的布拉德以及英国央行的亚当波森今天的公开讲话。

Expectations of positive economic data out of US, EU and China has kept risk-appetite alive as safe-haven currencies start to decline, Asian markets improve and commodities gained after yesterday’s big losses. The Yen weakened against most currencies with the USDJPY trading at 84.26 highs, EURJPY at 122.06 highs, EURUSD holding strong at 1.4513, GBPUSD trading at 1.6274, AUDUSD trading at 1.0493 highs, NZDUSD trading at 0.7886 highs mainly on global economic recovery signs. The EU industrial production data expected to show improvement along with US retail sales and Friday’s Chinese economic data expected to show the GDP expanded more than 9%, inflation quickened at the fastest pace in almost three years while another earthquake struck Japan today and the government reduced the assessment of the economy for the first time in six-months.

The BoC kept policy unchanged as expected and adjusted their GDP forecasts in 2011 to 2.9% (from 2.4%) and to 2.6% (from 2.8%) in 2012. The projections should they expect the economy to return to capacity by the middle of 2012. Officials said recent growth, though stronger than anticipated, is still largely consistent with their January projections and they reiterated that any further reduction of stimulus would need to be carefully considered. The BoC cited CAD strength as a challenge again and they see the emergence of broader global inflationary pressures due to commodity prices.

UK CPI was considerably below consensus at 4.0% in March, which hurt sterling initially. With an uncertain growth outlook and deep internal divisions at the BOE, a cautious approach to be taken on sterling. A weaker GDP figure due April 27 along with the weaker CPI data and muted consumer demand may keep the BOE on hold for now. UK retail sales for March were disappointing, falling by 3.5% YOY and is the worst since 1995. This is the first real sign that austerity measures imposed last year are significantly feeding through into consumer demand and will be an important indicator to watch in the future.

Upcoming news include UK jobless claims and unemployment data, EU industrial production, US Advanced Retail Sales, business inventories, Oil inventory data along with the Fed’s Beige book and Canadian Monetary report. We also have a lot of speeches today with BOC’s Carney, RBA’s Stevens, ECB’s Mersch, Stark, Tumpel-Gugerell, Axel Weber, Fed’s Bullard and BOE’s Adam Posen today.